Photo: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations
Tropical Storm Dolly is moving west across the Atlantic, with sustained winds of 40 mph, and could bring heavy rain to parts of the Caribbean this weekend. According to the National Hurricane Center, Dolly is expected to reach the Leeward Islands with rain late Saturday (August 29) into Sunday, then impact the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. Forecasters warn that these downpours may bring flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas, as the ground is very dry from ongoing drought.
Dolly formed Thursday as the fourth named storm of the Atlantic season, about 12 days later than average. The system is being affected by a strong El Niño, with strong winds and dry air expected to weaken Dolly into a tropical depression or wave before it reaches Puerto Rico. The system is not expected to become a hurricane, and its main threat is heavy rainfall. Some models suggest Dolly's remnants could bring one to four inches of rain to the northeastern Caribbean, but much more rain is needed to help with severe drought, especially in Puerto Rico.
Hostile winds and Saharan dust should limit Dolly's lifespan, and the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone extends only 72 hours due to expected weakening. There are currently no coastal watches or warnings, but local alerts may be issued for rainfall if conditions change.
As of Friday morning, Dolly was more than 1,500 miles east of the Leeward Islands and moving west at 23 mph. Long-range forecasts show the possibility that Dolly's remnants could regenerate north of the Caribbean, but odds remain low. Officials urge residents in affected islands to monitor weather updates closely as conditions can change quickly.